基于马尔可夫链的四川省产业结构时空演变  

Spatial-temporal Dynamics of Industrial Structure with Markov Chains Approach in Sichuan Province

作　　者：何一鸣[1] 蒲英霞[1] 王结臣[1] 陈刚[1] 马劲松[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2011年第4期68-75,共8页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40601074)资助

摘　　要：本文利用2000-2007年间四川省158个县域的产业结构系数,基于传统和空间马尔可夫链方法,分别构建县域产业结构的非空间和空间马尔可夫转移概率矩阵,对"西部大开发"战略实施以来四川省县域产业结构的时空动态演变特征进行初步分析。首先按照全省产业结构系数的平均水平,将所有县域划分为低、中低、中高和高4种类型,并构建其马尔可夫转移概率矩阵,考察全省县域尺度上的产业结构水平是否存在趋同现象;其次,以每个县域在初始年份的空间滞后类型为条件,构造其空间马尔可夫转移概率矩阵,分析在不同地理背景影响下四川省县域产业结构的时空演变特征;最后,通过县域产业结构系数的遍历分布,预测四川省县域产业结构水平的长期发展趋势。结果表明:①2000-2007年间四川省县域尺度上的产业结构存在一定程度的趋同现象,并未发生两极分化;②四川省县域产业结构系数的类型转移受地理背景的影响明显,同一类型区域在不同背景下的转移概率发生显著变化;③在不同区域背景下,四川省县域产业结构水平的长期发展趋势各有不同,以在中低水平背景下的区域发展潜力最大。Based on the data set of industrial structure coefficient at the county level in Sichuan province from 2000 to 2007,this paper attempts to apply traditional Markov chains and Spatial Markov chains to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of industrial structure level in Sichuan.Firstly,all the coefficient data of industrial structure in Sichuan are classified into 4 different classes（low,middle-low,middle-high and high） and Markov transition probability matrix is estimated to explore whether the convergence of industrial structure level exists in Sichuan during the study period.Secondly,taking each region＇s spatial lag at the beginning of each year as the condition,spatial Markov matrices are constructed to investigate the relationship between transition probability of different regions and their neighbors,and maps are accordingly made in order to visualize spatial patterns of class transitions.Thirdly,the evolutionary trends of industrial structure level are forecast by computing the limited power of Markov transition probability matrix.Empirical results indicate that there is regional convergence for industrial structure level in Sichuan during the study period,which is more obvious at high class than at low class.In addition,the improvement of one region＇s industrial structure level is influenced by its neighbors： different regional backgrounds make different transition probabilities for the same class;different classes have different transition probabilities with the same regional background.However,from a long-term point of view,the regional convergence is not evident and industrial structure will improve gradually in Sichuan,which shows a good development tendency;the trends are different under different regional backgrounds,and the best trend exists under the middle-low background.

关 键 词：产业结构 马尔可夫链 空间马尔可夫链 时空演变 四川省 

分 类 号：K902[历史地理—人文地理学] F127[经济管理—世界经济]