省域粮食单产水平与波动状况研究  

Analysis on Provincial Grain Unit Yield and its Fluctuation Conditions

作　　者：李靖[1] 孙晓明[2] 

机构地区：[1]农业部规划设计研究院规划所,北京100125 [2]农业部管理干部学院,北京102208

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2011年第4期76-80,共5页China Population,Resources and Environment

摘　　要：在我国宜耕耕地后备资源匮乏的背景下,保障国家粮食安全更多地依靠粮食单产水平的提升。分区域、分作物地研究粮食单产水平及其变化特征有助于把握粮食生产布局规律性,为科学地制定分区和分作物的产业指导政策提供依据。本研究通过"剔除趋势"模型,分析了我国主产省份各类粮食作物的单产水平、变化趋势和波动幅度。研究结果表明:我国粮食主产省份可划分为高产稳产区、中产稳产区、波动区和低产区四大类型,单产水平较高的地区主要分布在黄淮海地区、长江下游以及新疆,单产水平较低的地区主要分布在西部,东北主产区单产年际波动剧烈。为确保国家粮食安全,实现总量平衡和结构平衡,分区域产业指导政策宜分别实施稳定、优化、强基、提升四大战略;分作物产业指导政策方向是,水稻重点采取"南增北稳"战略,避免东北主产区水稻产量占全国比重过大造成风险加大的不利影响,小麦和玉米可重点培育新疆新兴产区能力建设。Under the condition of lack of suitable land,it relies more on the improvement of grain unit yield to guarantee the country＇s food security.It is helpful for the industry guidance policy-making to analyze the grain unit yield and its changing characteristics by region and crop.This paper,utilizing Trend Removed Model,analyzed the grain unit yield,changing characteristics and range of the main grain crops in major grain producing provinces.The results showed that the major grain producing provinces can be divided into four types,high and stable production,intermediate and stable production,waving production and low production.The high unit yield production mainly distributes in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region,the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River and Xinjiang,the low unit yield production mainly distributes in the west of China,while the production of the northeast regions varied violently from year to year.As for regions,it is proper to adopt four strategies for the industry-guidance policy： stability,optimization,solidity,and improvement;As to crops,it is suitable for rice to increase the production proportion in the south regions while maintaining the condition in the north regions to avoid the risks induced by the too high proportion of the northeast regions,while for wheat and corn,main efforts could be put into cultivating the emerging regions like Xinjiang.

关 键 词：粮食单产 主产省 波动 类型 

分 类 号：F323.2[经济管理—产业经济]