基于行业增长的省级可再生能源规划目标分解  

Target Decomposition of Renewable Energy Based on Industrial Growth

作　　者：刘贞[1] 张希良[1] 高虎 

机构地区：[1]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084 [2]国家发改委能源研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2011年第4期100-104,共5页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(编号:2010CB955602);国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71073095)

摘　　要：为了有效的把国家可再生能源规划分阶段的落实到各个省市,做好二者之间衔接工作,研究考虑了我国在从发展中国家过渡到中等发达国家时所需要考虑的如何平衡公平与效率之间关系的问题,结合中国可再生能源发展实际特征,提出一种基于行业增长曲线的可再生能源阶段目标分解模型。模型首先求解出中国不同的可再生能源行业的增长曲线。然后给出可再生能源发展阶段目标函数。结合区域发展规划,给出了各省的阶段目标,为了验证该模型的正确性,以风电、水电和太阳发电为代表能源,结合国家可再生能源整体规划和资源需求分布状况,分阶段提出了各省域的可再生能源发展目标。目标分解参照两个原则(1)可分解原则。国家总量目标可以根据一定的标准在不同地区、部门和行业进行分解,由全社会共同完成发展目标。(2)公平性和区域差异的原则。考虑资源禀赋和社会经济发展水平差距,各地总量目标有所区别。研究对于可再生能源规划的整体实施和监管具有一定的借鉴意义。To decompose the national renewable energy plan to be phased effectively into the various provinces and cities,the study took into account how to balance the relationship between fairness and efficiency when China is transiting to a moderately-developed country from a developing country.Combined with the actual features of the development of renewable energy,a stage target decomposition model based on the industry growth curve of renewable energy was presented.First,the model solves the growth curve of renewable energy sector in China.Then the stage target to develop renewable energy was given.With regional development planning,the stage target of various provinces was given.To verify the accuracy of the model,taking wind power,hydropower and solar power as the representative energy,and combined with the overall planning of national renewable energy and the resource needs distribution,the provincial renewable energy development targets a were proposed.Target decomposition refered to two principles：（1） Biodegradable principles.National total targets can be decomposed according to certain criteria in different regions,departments and sectors,a and the development can be completed by the whole society.（2） The principle of fairness and regional differences.In conside ration of the difference between resource endowment and socio-economic development,the total target between various regions should be different.It is of certain significance to monitor and implement renewable energy planning.

关 键 词：省域可再生能源规划 可再生能源行业增长模型 阶段目标分解 

分 类 号：C921.2[社会学—人口学]