中国产业用水变化驱动效应测度及空间分异  

MEASUREMENT OF THE DRIVING EFFECTS ON INDUSTRIAL WATER UTILIZATION CHANGE AND ITS SPATIAL DIFFERENCE ANALYSIS IN CHINA

作　　者：孙才志[1] 谢巍[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,中国辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《经济地理》2011年第4期666-672,共7页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40501013);国家社会科学基金项目(编号:07BJY066)联合资助

摘　　要：文章综合考虑了经济水平、产业结构、用水强度及人口规模四因素对产业用水量的影响,基于扩展的Kaya恒等式建立因素分解模型,应用LMDI分解方法对中国1997—2007年的三次产业用水量变化进行分解分析,以从时间序列上探讨其主要的影响因素并量化其贡献率;同时结合ISODATA聚类模型对各效应进行空间聚类,从而对各效应进行空间分异分析。结果表明:①经济水平的提高和人口规模的扩大拉动了我国产业用水量的增长,1997—2007年其效应平均值分别为670.47×108m3和33.47×108m3;而产业结构效应和用水强度效应对产业用水量的扩展起到一定的遏制作用,同期效应均值分别为-208.62 m3和-480.62 m3;②1997—2007年经济水平效应和人口规模效应的平均贡献率分别为1 056.96%和12.83%,而产业结构效应和用水强度效应的平均贡献率分别为-117.64%和-852.16%。经济发展水平和用水技术水平是导致我国产业用水量变动的决定性因素;③各种效应的空间分异反映出我国的经济发展水平、产业基础、技术水平和人口数量与效应的驱动作用存在着密切的关系,因此我国产业用水的"零增长"与"负增长"的目标需要在国民经济的不断发展中实现,水资源短缺的问题也将在经济水平提高的过程中得以解决。研究结果对于正确理解我国产业用水量变化与经济发展之间的关系以及产业发展政策的调整及可持续发展研究具有一定的参考价值。Four factors respectively named economy development level,industrial structure,water utilization intensity and population size are comprehensively considered as the factors that impact on the change of industrial water utilization,the factor decomposition model under the extended Kaya identity was established,the decomposition model was solved by the method of LMDI（Longarithmic Mean Divisia Index）,then the driving effects of the four factors were analyzed and the main factors were determined in time series,which may useful for the understanding of industrial water utilization change from 1997 to 2007 in China.Adopting the ISODATA cluster model,the driving effects of four factors were clustered in space,then the analysis of spatial difference characteristics was carried out.The results showed that：（1）The economy growth and population expasion increased water utilization,whose average effect are 670.47×108m3 and 33.47×108m3 from 1997 to 2007,and industrial structure and water utilization intensity decrease water utilization,whose average effects from 1997 to 2007 are-208.62m3 and-480.62m3 respectively in the same phase;（2）The average contribution ratio of economy development level and population size are 1 056.96% and 12.83% from 1997 to 2007,and the ones of industrial structure and water utilization intensity are-117.64% and-852.16%,so the economy development level and water utilization intensity are the determined factors for water utilization change,and the effect of population size should not be neglected;（3）The spatial difference of various effects reflect such a phenomenon that the effect function has a consaguineous relationship with the economy development level,industrial foundation,technical level and population scale,so the implement of ＂zero increase＂ and ＂negative increase＂ goal should be in the continuous development of nation economy,and the water shortage problem also should be solved by inproving the economy developmentin level.The result of this research is of significa

关 键 词：产业用水 驱动效应测度 Kaya恒等式 空间分异 中国 

分 类 号：F223[经济管理—国民经济]