北方3种动物鼠疫预警系统研究  

STUDIES ON EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS OF THREE SPECIES ANIMAL PLAGUES IN NORTHERN PART OF CHINA

作　　者：李仲来[1] 李书宝[2] 张万荣 张耀星 周方孝[2] 胡全林 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学数学系 [2]吉林省地方病第一防治研究所 [3]内蒙古自治区伊克昭盟地方病防治站 [4]内蒙古自治区锡林郭勒盟鼠疫防治站

出　　处：《中国地方病防治》1999年第4期193-196,共4页Chinese Journal of Control of Endemic Diseases

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(39570638)

摘　　要：本文论述建立达乌尔黄鼠、阿拉善黄鼠、长爪沙鼠鼠疫预警系统。对达乌尔黄鼠和阿拉善黄鼠鼠疫预警,预警指标取黄鼠密度,体蚤指数或洞干蚤指数;警限值:黄鼠密度为1只/公顷,体蚤指数为1匹,洞干蚤指数为0.5匹;用时间序列方法进行趋势外推,再利用回归模型进行预警。对2种黄鼠鼠疫疫源地预警结果为1998、1999年无动物鼠疫流行。鄂尔多斯地区动物鼠疫预警指标取沙鼠密度、体蚤指数和6～8月降水;警限值:沙鼠密度为50只/公顷;体蚤指数为1匹,6～8月降水量警限为连续2年降水达到210mm;用灰色灾变预测法等方法进行预警。预警结果为下一个动物鼠疫流行周期是2005年左右。This paper discussed to construct the plague early warning systems for Spermophilus dauricus, S. d. alaschanicus and Meriones unguiculatus. Considering the two species Daurian ground squirrel plagues, early warning index be density of S. dauricus and its body flea index,or burrow track flea one.The warning limit values be that the density of S.dauricus be 1 (individual/hm2) ,the body flea index be 1 and the burrow track flea index be 0.5 Using the time sequence method the trend values of warning index were obtained, and the early warning for the animal plagues were conducted by the regression model.The forecast results:the animal plagues will not be epidemic in 1998 and 1999. In Erdois,early warning index be density of M.unguiculatus and its boby flea index,and the precipitation from June to August. The warning limit values be that the gerbil density be 50 (individual/hm2),the body flea index be 1 and the precipitation from June to August arrived the 210mm in two successed years.The early warning for the animal plagues were conducted by the grey forecasting model and the other methods.The forecast results:the animal plagues will be epidemic in 2005 or so.

关 键 词：预警 动物鼠疫 达乌尔黄鼠 阿拉善黄鼠 长爪沙鼠 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学] R516.801[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]