基于小波变换的城市市区典型路段交通流量预测  

Prediction model of traffic flow along typical roads in city urban district based on wavelet transform

作　　者：马林才[1,2] 许玮珑[2] 刘大学[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学动力机械及车辆工程研究所,杭州310027 [2]浙江交通职业技术学院汽车学院,杭州311112

出　　处：《控制与决策》2011年第5期789-793,共5页Control and Decision

基　　金：浙江省交通运输厅科技基金项目(2008T37)

摘　　要：提出一种基于"先分-独立预测-再合"思想的新型交通流量预测模型.其应用小波变换技术,对交通流量数据进行分解和重构,将得到的低频概貌信号和高频细节信号,分别用3次平滑指数和ARIMA进行拟合,并应用逐步回归方法建立基于原始交通流量数据,以及高、低频拟合信号的回归方程.对某城市市区典型路段交通流量数据进行验证分析,结果表明,该方程具有较高的拟合精度,优于ARIMA单独使用的效果.A new kind prediction model of traffic flow based on the thought ＂decomposition-independently prediction-combination＂ is described in this paper.First,the traffic flow data are decomposed and reconstructed by using the wavelet transform technique.And the low frequency outline signal and high frequency detail signal are fitted respectively by using the three time exponential smoothing method and ARIMA.Then stepwise regression technology is used to establish the regression equation,in which the primitive traffic flow data are the dependent variable,and high,low-frequency signal’s fitting data are the independent variables.The confirmation analysis is carried on with traffic flow data from typical roads in some city urban districts.The results show that the regression equation has a high fitting precision,and is better than the ARIMA function.

关 键 词：小波变换 交通流量 自回归求和滑动平均 回归分析 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]