三峡水库气候效应及2006年夏季川渝高温干旱事件的区域气候模拟  

REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATION OF THE CLIMATE EFFECTS OF THE THREE GORGE RESERVOIR WITH SPECIFIC APPLICATION TO THE SUMMER 2006 DROUGHT OVER THE SICHUANG-CHONGQING AREA

作　　者：吴佳[1,2,3] 高学杰[3] 张冬峰[3] 石英[3] GIORGI F 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]国家气候中心,北京100081 [4]International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2011年第1期44-52,共9页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY200806010;国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2009CB421407、2007CB411505)共同资助

摘　　要：针对2006年夏季川(四川)渝(重庆)地区的高温干旱事件,使用RegCM3区域气候模式,采用双重嵌套和次网格(SUB-BATS)方法,进行中国和三峡地区2005—2006年气候50 km和10 km(通过SUB-BATS方法达到2 km)分辨率数值模拟,并在此基础上进行了三峡地区下垫面改变(三峡水库建成蓄水)的气候效应模拟试验,重点分析了模式对中国和三峡地区夏季气候和气候异常的模拟能力,以及三峡水库对气温和降水的影响。结果表明,模式能较好模拟出中国和川渝地区的气候及以2006年川渝地区高温干旱为代表的气候异常,双重嵌套和SUB-BATS方法的应用,使模式能够提供局地和区域气候更详细的信息。有无三峡水库的对比试验表明,水库对周边区域气温、降水的影响很小,大部分格点上的变化达不到90%统计信度检验标准,气温变化中少数通过检验的格点基本集中于水库水体本身,邻近区域内气温和降水的变化随距库区的距离变远而变得更弱。除了库区本身降温和降水减少外,模拟结果中出现的变化更多表现为模式中出现的噪音。2006年夏季的川渝高温干旱,更多是由于大的环流场造成的,与局地强迫的关系不大,三峡水库在其中所起的作用非常微弱,可以忽略不计。High resolution multi-seasonal regional climate model experiments were conducted to simulate the effects of the Three Gorge Reservoir（TGR） on the climate of the surrounding region,with specific application to the summer of 2006 severe drought over the Sichuan-Chongqing area,or Three Gorge Area（TGA）.A 50×50 km resolution simulation with the domain covering the whole China was first completed.Then two double nested simulations were carried out at a 10-km grid spacing over the TGA,one without the inland water coverage of TGR and the other with.A sub-grid method was employed in these two simulations to make the final model resolution to be 2 km×2 km（10-2 km simulations）.Results show that the 50-km model reproduces the basic climatology and the anomaly of the summer temperature and precipitation over China,including the heat wave and drought over the Sichuan-Chongqing area.The 10-2 km resolution simulation provides with more detail of local climate over TGA.Sensitivity experiments with and without the TGR showed that this had little or negligible effects except right over the TGR area.The averages of the changes over the area are very small both for temperature and precipitation.Most of the changes in the grid points are not statistically significant on the 90% level while most of the significant changes in temperature are found to be located over the water body of TGR.The changes show more noise than systematic effects outside the TGR.In summary,the heat wave and drought event over the Sichuan-Chongqing area in the summer of 2006 can be more attributed to the large-scale circulation than to a local forcing.Contribution of the TGR is negligible.

关 键 词：气候学 气候变化 区域气候模式 三峡水库 

分 类 号：P461.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]