基于区间数灰理论的短期经济增长波动研究  

Study on Short-term Fluctuation of Economic Growth Based on Grey Incidence Theory of Multi-attribute Intervals

作　　者：陈又星[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东商学院工商管理学院,广东广州510320

出　　处：《重庆工商大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第2期8-12,共5页Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University：Social Science Edition

基　　金：广东省社会科学"十一五"规划2009年度规划项目(09O-09)"基于知识管理的组织学习能力与企业创新能力关系转换机制研究"

摘　　要：多属性区间数排序及决策普遍存在于工程系统及社会经济系统之中,它是决策理论与方法研究的一个重要内容。以往的经济增长波动研究多局限于长周期经济增长波动研究,研究方法多采用统计学相关知识。本文将多属性区间数排序及灰关联度理论结合在一起,通过对基于GDP增长的多属性影响因素来构建多属性波动区间数,并采用灰关联度相关计算算法,应用于国民经济增长的短期波动质量监测,最后通过实证分析来证明这一方法在实践中的价值与意义。Sorting and decision-making of multi-attribute intervals are prevalent in engineering systems and socio-economic systems and are an important content of theory and method study of decision-making.The previous study of fluctuation of economic growth is limited to fluctuation of long-term economic growth and its research methods mainly use statistical knowledge.This article combines sorting of multi-attribute intervals with grey incidence theory together,builds multi-attribute intervals of fluctuations based on GDP growth,uses relevant calculation algorithms of grey incidence to monitor the short-term fluctuations quality of national economic growth,and,finally,uses the method in empirical analysis to verify the value and significance of the method in practice.

关 键 词：多属性 区间数 灰关联度 短期经济增长波动 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F224.0