我国人口扰动对高等教育规模的影响研究  

Disturbance of Population & Higher Education Scale in China

作　　者：谢杰[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433 [2]浙江工商大学经济学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《科技进步与对策》2011年第8期151-155,共5页Science & Technology Progress and Policy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70573067);教育部省部共建人文社会科学研究重点研究基地浙江大学现代商贸研究中心项目(10JDSM06YB);浙江省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(JYTjr20101205);浙江工商大学产业经济学浙江省重点学科项目(3010GF13090103)

摘　　要：人口出生率下降和海外留学人数增长是导致参加高考人数减少的原因。除此之外,始于51年前的人口扰动也可能引起未来参加高考人数的下降。通过构建一个非线性回归模型来分析人口扰动对高等教育规模的影响。根据分析的结果,到2020年,我国高等教育毛入学率应当达到55%,也就是每年扩招的增长速度大约是3%;那么,到2020年,我国可实现高等教育普及化,逐渐与国际接轨,并且可以缓解生源不足的问题。高等教育普及化有助于缩小地区经济差距,并适应我国快速城市化的需要。The decreasing birth rate and the rising popularity of overseas studies have combined to drag the number of candidates for college entrance exam.Besides these two reasons,the disturbance of population happened 51 years ago may cause the decrease in number of college entrance exam candidates in the future.The paper constructs a non-linear regression model to analyze the impact of disturbance of population on the scale of higher education.According to our nonlinear regression model analysis,the gross enrollment rate of higher education should reach 55% by the year 2020,and average annual increase rate of China gross college enrollment number is about 3%.Then the popularization of higher education will be realized by the year 2020,which will be gradually geared to international standards and the lack source of students could be released.The popularization of higher education can help to reduce district economic disparities,and help to gear higher education to the demand of rapid urbanization.

关 键 词：人口扰动 高等教育规模 非线性回归模型 

分 类 号：G640[文化科学—高等教育学]