汇率制度退出与转型:文献综述  

The Exit and Transition of Exchange Rate Regimes:A Survey

作　　者：刘晓辉[1] 于波[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学,成都610074 [2]南京信息工程大学,南京210044

出　　处：《阅江学刊》2011年第2期68-77,共10页Yuejiang Academic Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社科青年项目"政治压力;外汇市场压力与中国货币危机早期预警系统研究"(10YJC790175);江苏省高校哲学社会科学项目"社会主义新农村建设中的金融创新"(06SJB790016)

摘　　要：如何退出已有汇率制度安排,向更具弹性的汇率制度转型?这是当前新兴市场和发展中国家面临的一个重要问题。在维持已有制度的边际成本与边际收益一致时退出已有汇率制度是最优的。最佳退出时机的经验判断原则取决于该国的经济结构、经济发展阶段、经济冲击、政治与制度因素等。这些因素同时也决定了该国汇率制度退出和转型的策略选择。汇率制度转型所需的基本条件是:一个具有一定深度和一定流动性的外汇市场,一套连贯的中央银行外汇市场干预的政策措施,一个恰当的名义锚,监测和管理公共部门和私人部门外汇风险暴露的有效机制。How does a country exit from the original exchange rate regime and transit to a more flexible regime.9 This is an important problem encountered by emerging markets and developing countries. The optimal time of a country to exit from existing exchange rate regimes is the time when the marginal cost of maintaining the existing regime equals the marginal revenue. However, the empirical judging criteria of the optimal time are subjected to a country＇s economic structure, development stage, economic shocks, political and institutional factors, etc. At the same time, these factors determine the choice of exit and transition strategies. The paper concludes four basic conditions necessary for transition： a country should have a foreign exchange market of depth and capital mobility; a coherent set of intervention measures by central bank on currency exchange market; an appropriate nominal anchor; and an effective mechanism of monitoring and managing the risk exposed to public and private sector＇s foreign exchange.

关 键 词：汇率制度 退出 转型 名义锚 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]