福建省的碳排放趋势与对策  

Carbon Emissions in Fujian Province:Trends and Countermeasures

作　　者：黄蕊[1] 刘昌新[2] 熊文[1] 王铮[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200062 [2]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100080

出　　处：《亚热带资源与环境学报》2011年第1期15-25,共11页Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41071089);中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX2-YW-325)

摘　　要：采用朱永彬、王铮最优增长率模型,研究了经济平稳增长条件下,福建省未来的能源碳排放趋势,并采用CO2FIX模型计算福建省森林碳汇量,为福建省制定碳排放战略提供参考.结果显示,在当前技术进步速率下,在经济平稳增长的条件下,碳排放强度不断下降,下降速率为0.044.福建省人均碳排放呈倒"U"曲线增长,高峰出现在2047年.福建省能源消费量和碳排放总量也呈倒"U"曲线增长,能源消费高峰和碳排放高峰出现在2048年,达到高峰时间比同等条件下的全国高峰略晚,反映出福建省技术进步缓慢,能源结构不够清洁.情景模拟显示通过调整能源结构、加快技术进步速率、调整产业结构,福建省的能源消费量和能源碳排放量都将有较大幅度的下降,综合使用3种方法时减排效果最优.This article discussed the method of predicting regional carbon emissions.Adopting the optimal growth model proposed by Zhu Yongbin and Wang Zheng and CO2FIX model,carbon emissions caused by energy consumption and forest sink in Fujian province were computed.The results show that with current rates of technology advancement and economy growth,the intensity of carbon emissions will be decreasing at a mean rate of 0.044.Per capita carbon emissions in the province will be increasing in a typical pattern of inverted ＂U＂curve,with 2047 as its peak year.And energy consumption and carbon emissions of the province will also be increasing in inverted ＂U＂curve way with a peak in 2048,a little later than that of the whole country under the same conditions.This reflects that Fujian is slow in technology advancement,and its energy structure is unclean.Scenario simulations show that by energy structure readjustment,technological progress or by industrial restructuring,energy consumption and carbon emissions in Fujian will all see a big decrease,yet the reduction effect would be optimal if the methods are combined.

关 键 词：能源消费量 碳排放 人均碳排放 森林碳汇 

分 类 号：F1[经济管理—世界经济] K9[历史地理—人文地理学]