相似离度在船用防避台风决策系统中的应用  

Application of similar disparity in decision making system for avoiding typhoon at sea

作　　者：廖木星[1,2,3] 高玉德[1,2,3] 宋国盛 秦臻[1,2,3] 赵怀森 

机构地区：[1]青岛远洋船员学院航海系 [2]青岛远洋运输公司 [3]中远集运公司安监处

出　　处：《大连海事大学学报》1999年第2期11-16,共6页Journal of Dalian Maritime University

基　　金：中国远洋运输(集团)总公司专项科研基金

摘　　要：给出了用一种相似比较的新的数学衡量标准——相似离度及其预报台风路径和强度的使用技术．预报检验和推广应用表明，该方法对台风路径和强度的短、中期预报都显示了非常好的效果，显著地提高了预报精度，并能有效地预报台风衰亡过程，对奇异路径和热带低压也有相当的预报能力．系统操作简便、运算迅速，特别适合于装有微机的舰船使用．This article evaluates the effects of some common similarity criteria and introduces a relatively new mathematical evaluation criterion Similarity Disparity, to forecast typhoons paths and their intensities. Forecasting tests and application results show that this method achieves remarkable forecasting effects in the respects of typhoon paths, intensities and medium term and long term forecasts, thus improving the forecasting precision. It can predict the reduction of typhoon forces equally effectively, demonstrate fairly good workability in forecasting queer paths and tropical depressions. This system is convenient in operation, rapid in calculation, and is especially applicable to computerized vessels.

关 键 词：相似离度 舰船 热带气旋 路径 强度 预报 台风 

分 类 号：U675.54[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程] U674.7[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]