η坐标有限区域数值预报模式的实时预报试验  

A Real time Precipitation Forecast in Flood Period of 1998 with the η Coordinate Limited area Nested Grid Model

作　　者：方慈安 梅修宁 毛光祥 

机构地区：[1]湖南省气象台,长沙410007

出　　处：《气象》1999年第9期15-20,共6页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：给出了η坐标有限区域数值模式对１９９８ 年汛期降水的实时预报试验结果，表明利用 Ｔ１０６ 资料作初值，模式对湖南汛期降水有相当的预报能力。在６ 月中、下旬和７月下旬的主汛期预报中，雨区范围（２４ 小时降水大于１ｍ ｍ ）预报的 Ｔ Ｓ值为５６４％ ；２４ 小时降水大于１０ｍ ｍ 、２５ｍ ｍ 和５０ｍ ｍ 的 Ｔ Ｓ值分别为３３９％ 、２１６％ 和１０６％ ，优于 Ｈ Ｌ Ａ Ｆ Ｓ和 Ｔ１０６ 的预报结果，其中降水大于２５ｍ ｍ 的 Ｔ Ｓ值要比 Ｈ Ｌ Ａ Ｆ Ｓ的提高１３１％ 。A real time testing result of precipitation forecast in 1998 flood period with a limited area nested grid model(LNGM) of η coordinate was given.And it has indicated that this NWP with real time initial field data of T106L19(the numerical weather forecast model of China)has a better TS forecast score of precipitation in the flood period in Hunan. In the second & third dekad of June and the third dekad of July in 1998 i.e.Hunan′s main flood period,the TS for precipitation forecast (24 hours) in the limited area(hyetal region) with its center in Hunan,are 56 4%,33 9%,21 6% & 10 6% respectively to ≥1mm,≥10mm,≥25mm,≥50mm/24h,better than T106L19 and HLAFS(the mesoscale numerical weather forecast model of China),and the TS of precipitation ≥25mm/24h is 13 1% higher than HLAFS.

关 键 词：Η坐标 T106资料 有限区 数值预报模式 天气预报 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]