基于未确知测度理论的安全生产状况评价研究  

Research on Safety Production Status Evaluation Based on Uncertainty Measurement Theory

作　　者：李艳强[1] 秦跃平[1] 刘宏波[1] 罗维[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2010年第12期111-115,共5页China Safety Science Journal

摘　　要：为研究我国省市的安全生产级别,基于未确知测度理论,建立安全生产状况评价的等级模型。根据实际情况,选取5项评价指标,建立各评价指标的未确知测度函数。利用熵确定各项指标的权重,避免人为主观性对评价的影响,根据多指标综合测度评价向量和置信度识别准则进行评判。结合2009年9省市对应指标统计数据,采用未确知理论对安全生产状况进行评价,并结合实际进行分析。该理论为省、市安全生产提供了指导性的建议和依据。In order to study the safety production grade of provinces in China,based on the uncertainty measurement theory,a grade model for safety production evaluation was established.According to the actual situation,five evaluation indexes were selected,and uncertainty measurement function of each evaluation index was established.Entropy weight theory was used to determine the index weight of factors,which avoids the adverse influence of human subjectivity.Then,the grade judgment for safety production status was carried out according to the evaluation vector of multiple-index comprehensive measurement and credible degree recognition criterion.Taking the statistic data of 9 provinces in China in 2009 as examples,safety production evaluation was conducted with the above model,and the results were gained and analyzed by combining the actual situation.The study shows that this model can provide instructive advice and basis for safety production.

关 键 词：安全生产 未确知测度 置信度识别准则 熵权 评价指标 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]