南京市某区气温与居民死亡关系的时间序列分析  

Relationship between Temperature and Daily Mortality in a District of Nanjing:a Time-Series Study

作　　者：司朝宗[1] 陈晓东[1,2] 周连[2] 孙宏[2] 张琦[3] 钱乐[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学公共卫生学院,江苏南京210009 [2]江苏省疾病预防控制中心 [3]南京医科大学公共卫生学院

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2011年第3期230-232,共3页Journal of Environment and Health

基　　金：国家空气污染与疾病监测项目

摘　　要：目的探索气温与南京市某区居民每日死亡数之间的关系。方法采用时间序列的广义相加模型(generalized additive model,GAM),在控制死亡的长期趋势、季节趋势以及大气污染物等混杂因素的基础上,分析该区2007年1月1日—2008年12月31日气温与每日人群死亡数之间的关系。结果 2007—2008年,南京市某区死亡人数为8 238例,日平均死亡11.27例,控制长期趋势、季节趋势和大气污染等因素影响后,气温与每日人群死亡数之间存在二次曲线关系,气温为21.77℃时死亡数最低,气温对每日人群死亡数的解释比例为8.81%,低温和高温都将导致每日人群死亡数增加。结论南京市某区每日人群死亡数与日平均气温存在二次曲线关系,在数据不满足参数拟合条件时,广义相加模型能有效地发现每日人群死亡数与气象条件间的内在关系。Objective To assess the relationship between temperature and daily mortality in a district of Nanjing. Methods Generalized additive model was used to analyze the relationship between temperature and daily death numbers from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2008 after adjustment for the long-term trend of death, air pollutants included SO2, NO2 and PM. Results The number of daily death was associated with the daily average temperature in a manner of quadratic curve, the optimum temperature was 21.77℃, the explanation proportion of temperature to daily death was 8.81%. Conclusion Low and high temperature will result in the increase of the number of daily death. No obvious effects of air SO2, NO2 and PM10 on the daily death number are observed in the present study.

关 键 词：气象因素 死亡 时间序列 广义相加模型 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]