郑州市空气污染对每日门诊人次影响的滞后效应和收获效应  

Lag Structure and Harvesting Effects of Air Pollution on Daily Outpatient Visits

作　　者：吴彧[1] 张衍燊[2] 刘玲[2] 赵秀阁[2] 张金良[2] 

机构地区：[1]河南省人民医院内二科,郑州河南450003 [2]中国环境科学研究院环境污染与健康研究室

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2011年第3期233-237,共5页Journal of Environment and Health

摘　　要：目的探讨郑州市空气污染对医院每日门诊人次影响的滞后效应和收获效应。方法收集郑州市2008年12月1日—2009年11月30日空气质量数据、气象数据和该省某医院呼吸内科、心血管内科和神经内科每日门诊人次数据,利用广义线性分布滞后模型,控制长期和季节趋势、气温和气湿等混杂因素,描述空气污染对每日门诊人次影响的滞后效应分布,检验是否存在收获效应。结果 PM10和NO2对心血管内科门诊人次的影响存在累积效应。PM10浓度每升高10μg/m3,其对心血管内科门诊人次影响的相对危险度估计为1.035 5(95%CI:1.002 8～1.069 3),关联有统计学意义(P<0.05);NO2浓度每升高10μg/m3,其对心血管内科门诊人次影响的相对危险度估计为1.177 2(95%CI:1.028 4～1.347 6),关联有统计学意义(P<0.05)。PM10、SO2和NO2与呼吸内科和神经内科门诊人次间无关联;SO2与心血管内科门诊人次间亦无关联。未观察到PM10和NO2对心血管内科门诊人次的影响存在收获效应。结论郑州市空气PM10和NO2浓度与心血管内科门诊人次间存在正相关,且不存在收获效应。Objective To explore whether there is harvesting effect between air pollutants and daily outpatient visits in Zhengzhou. Methods The data of air quality, weather and daily outpatient visits for the department of respiratory medicine, cardiovascular internal medicine and neurology from December 1, 2008 to November 30, 2009 were collected in Zhengzhou, and then generalized linear distributed lag models were used to explore the relationship between air pollutants and daily outpatient visits, after adjusting confounding effects of long-term and seasonal trend, daily temperature and relative humidity. Results PMIO and NO2 were significantly associated with daily outpatient visits for the department of cardiovascular internal medicine. An increase of 10 μg/m3 in PM10 was associated with an estimated ralative risk （ER） of 3.55% （95%CI： 0.28%-6.93%） outpatient visits for the department of cardiovascular internal medicine. And an increase of 10 μg/m3 in NO2 was associated with an ER of 17.72% （95% CI： 2.84%-13.48%） outpatient visits for the department of cardiovascular internal medicine. The harvesting effects between PMIO and NO2, and daily outpatient visits for the department of cardiovascular internal medicine wasn＇t observed. PM10, SO2 and NO2 were not significantly associated with daily outpatient visits for the respiratory internal medicine and neurological internal medicine. Also, SO2 was not significantly associated with daily outpatient visits for the department of cardiovascular internal medicine. Conclusion Daily PM10 and NO2 concentrations are positively associated with daily outpatient visits for the department of cardiovascular internal medicine in Zhengzhou, and there is no harvesting effect.

关 键 词：空气污染 门诊人次 滞后效应 收获效应 分布滞后模型 

分 类 号：R122.2[医药卫生—环境卫生学]