基于可靠度的电力变压器寿命分析  

Service Life Analysis of Power Transformer Based on Reliability

作　　者：翟博龙[1] 孙鹏[2] 马进[3] 黄绪勇[2] 张文斌[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学云南电网公司研究生工作站,云南省昆明市650217 [2]云南电力试验研究院,云南省昆明市650217 [3]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京市昌平区102206

出　　处：《电网技术》2011年第5期127-131,共5页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50707009)~~

摘　　要：为掌握电力变压器全寿命周期的状态变化情况,基于故障树分析法建立了变压器可靠度模型及变压器老化模型,利用最小二乘法拟合变压器运行年限–平均可靠度关系曲线,计算变压器进入各个寿命阶段的年限及平均无故障工作时间,从而为确定最佳维修周期、制定最优维修方案提供科学依据,达到延长变压器有效使用寿命的目的。算例结果验证该方法的有效性。To have an insight into the state change of power transformer during its total life cycle, based on the fault tree analysis a reliability model and a ageing model of power transformer are built. The curve of the relation between operation years and mean reliability level （MRL） of power transformer is fitted by the method of least squares, and different age limits that power transformer comes into and mean time between failures （MTBF） are calculated to offer reasonable foundation to determine optimal maintenance period and draft optimal maintenance scheme to achieve the aim to prolong the service life of power transformer. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by results of calculation example.

关 键 词：电力变压器 可靠度 老化模型 状态评价 寿命 分析 平均无故障工作时间 故障树分析法 

分 类 号：TM407[电气工程—电器]