东北地区水稻冷害气候风险度和经济脆弱度及其分区研究  

Climate risk and economy vulnerability of rice chilling damage and division in Northeast China

作　　者：马树庆[1] 王琪[2] 王春乙[3] 霍治国[3] 

机构地区：[1]吉林省气象台,长春130062 [2]吉林省气象科学研究所,长春130062 [3]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《地理研究》2011年第5期931-938,共8页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目(2004BA509B14);国家"十一五"科技支撑项目(2006BAD04B02)

摘　　要：应用历年气象、水稻产量资料和冷害指标,分析东北地区水稻低温冷害发生的温度条件、气候频率和风险概率,建立了水稻冷害气候风险度模式,将东北地区分成高、偏高、中等、较低和低风险5级水稻冷害气候风险度区。在气候风险性分析的基础上,考虑各地水稻冷害减产率、总产量和面积比例等经济损失因素,建立水稻生产对低温冷害反应的经济脆弱度模式,将东北地区划分成高度脆弱、脆弱、低脆弱和不脆弱4级区。东北地区的北部和东部是水稻冷害高气候风险区,中部为中度冷害气候风险区,南部冷害气候风险较低。吉林省东部和黑龙江省东北部是水稻冷害经济高度脆弱区,黑龙江省东部多数县市、吉林省东部半山区为脆弱区,黑龙江省西南部、吉林省中北部和辽宁省东北部为低脆弱区,吉林省西南部和辽宁省大部为不脆弱区。改善种植结构、调整品种布局和采用抗低温栽培技术是降低水稻冷害风险度和经济脆弱度的主要措施。Applying calendar weather,rice yield data and chilling injury index of Northeast China,this paper analyzed thermal condition,occurrence frequency and risk probability of rice chilling damage,and developed an evaluation model of the climate risk index of the damage.Thus,Northeast China region is divided into five types of rice climate risk areas of highest,higher,medium,lower and lowest levels.In climate risk analysis,based on considerations the rice cold damage cut rates,total output and the area ratio and other economic loss factors,the economy vulnerability model of the damage was developed,and the region was divided into four type areas of economic vulnerability,i.e.,high degree of vulnerability,vulnerability,low vulnerablility and non-vulnerability.Northern and eastern parts of Northeast China is the high climate risk area,the central part is medium risk area,and the southern part is the lower one.Eastern Jilin Province and northeastern Heilongjiang Province are high economy vulnerability areas,eastern Heilongjiang and the eastern hilly land of Jilin are medium or higher economy vulnerability areas,southwestern and central Heilongjiang and central Jilin are lower vulnerable areas,and southwestern Jilin and most parts of Liaoning Province are the non-vulnerable areas.The main technical and strategic measures to reduce the risk and vulnerability are to improve the planting structure,to adjust the rice variety and to use the cultivation technique of resisting the damage.

关 键 词：水稻冷害 气候风险度 经济脆弱度 分区 东北地区 

分 类 号：S426[农业科学—植物保护]