泛珠三角省份与香港贸易流量的引力模型分析  

Gravity Model Analysis of Trade Flow between Pan-Pearl River Delta Provinces and Hong Kong

作　　者：刘建党[1] 杨贞[2] 

机构地区：[1]综合开发研究院(中国.深圳),广东深圳518029 [2]华南师范大学经济与管理学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《深圳职业技术学院学报》2011年第3期49-53,共5页Journal of Shenzhen Polytechnic

摘　　要：2001年以来,泛珠江三角洲省份与香港的经济联系日益紧密,为了探讨双边贸易的主要影响因素,本文采用国际上惯用的贸易引力模型进行实证分析,结果表明贸易流量主要受GDP、人均GDP、人口和距离因素的影响,面积、CEPA因素对贸易流量的影响不显著.从影响的绝对值来看,人均GDP>人口>距离>GDP.从影响的正负来看,GDP、人口与贸易流量正相关,人均GDP差值、距离与贸易流量负相关.目前,泛珠省份与香港之间逐渐形成了产业内分工格局,广东与香港的产业内分工体系最完善.未来,泛珠省份应该探索国民收入倍增计划,推动基础设施一体化,深化产业分工与合作,拓展泛珠省份与香港的贸易空间,实现泛珠三角地区经济的共同繁荣.Since 2001,economic relationships between Pan-Pearl River Delta provinces and Hong Kong are building up.To study the factors which influence the bilateral trades,the thesis attempts to make an empirical analysis by adopting the internationally-recognized trade gravity model,the results of which shows that trade mainly is affected by factors,such as GDP,GDP per capita,population and distance.Land size and CEPA don＇t have an obvious effect on trade flow.The order of absolute value of the effect is GDP per capita,population,distance and GDP.GDP and population have a positive correlation with trade flow,while distance and difference value of GDP per capita a negative correlation with trade flow.At present,Pan-Pearl River Delta provinces and Hong Kong are developing intra-industry specialization with Guangdong taking the lead.In the future,Pan-Pearl River Delta provinces should explore National Income Doubling Plan,enforce infrastructure integration,deepen industrial division and cooperation,and enlarge trade flow between pan-Pearl River Delta provinces and Hong Kong,to achieve common prosperity between them.

关 键 词：CEPA 泛珠三角地区 引力模型 面板数据 

分 类 号：F727[经济管理—产业经济]