我国经济增长对碳排放驱动效应的实证研究  

Empirical Research of Economic Growth on Carbon Emission Driving Effect in China

作　　者：范允奇[1] 王文举[1] 

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100026

出　　处：《贵州财经学院学报》2011年第3期7-13,共7页Journal of Guizhou College of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(10AJY002);北京市高等学校人才强教深化计划高层次人才资助项目(PHR20100513);北京市优秀博士学位论文指导教师人文社科项目(YB20091003801)的阶段成果之一;首都经济贸易大学"研究生科技创新资助项目"(CUEB2010529)

摘　　要：用EKC模型、STIRPAT模型和SS-STIRPAT模型分别对1980—2008年我国经济增长对碳排放驱动效应进行实证分析,结果显示SS-STIRPAT模型不仅能够分析动态特征而且模型预测性质更好。研究发现,我国的碳排放EKC曲线并非倒U型,我国人均碳排放对人均GDP的弹性系数在1.11到1.15范围内波动,产业结构调整、市场化改革、宏观经济刺激政策和环境保护力度是影响该弹性的重要因素。为了实现2020年的减排目标,每年由技术进步带来的单位GDP碳排放下降比率必须达到4%。By using EKC Model, STIRPAT Model and SS-STIRPAT Model, the paper did an empirical analysis of economic growth from 1980 to 2008 on carbon emission and results show that SS-STIRPAT Model can not only analyze dynamic characteristics but also has a better prospective quality. Results also suggest that the EKC curve of carbon emission in China is not U-shaped ; the elastic factor of carbon emission per capita fluctuates between 1.11 and I. 15 which mainly due to industrial structure adjustment, market reform, macro-economy stimulating policies and environmental protection strength; in order to reach the goal of emission reduction in 2020, the dropping rate of GDP carbon emission per unit resulted from technological advance must be 4%.

关 键 词：经济增长 碳排放 驱动效应 实证研究 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]