国际黄金价格和美元汇率走势研究  

A Theoretical and Empirical Research on the International Gold Prices and the Dollar Exchange Rate

作　　者：金蕾[1] 年四伍[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学金融学院 [2]上海财经大学应用经济学博士后流动站

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2011年第5期81-86,共6页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金资助第四十七批面上资助项目"国际黄金价格波动影响因素研究"(项目编号:20100470667)的阶段性成果之一

摘　　要：近年来,伴随美元汇率的持续走低,使得我国外汇储备面临持续缩水的风险,与之相伴的是国际黄金价格不断突破历史新高,国内外对增加黄金储备的呼声日渐高涨。因此,有必要认真审视国际黄金价格和美元汇率走势之间的关系。从理论分析来看,当前美元主导的国际货币制度下,美元面临着保证国际流动性需要和信用货币内在价值稳定的双重难题,研究表明,美元汇率和国际金价之间存在长期反向关系,投资黄金是对抗美元贬值的有效手段。因此,黄金仍是各国央行、IMF重要的储备资产,其在国际货币体系中依然占据重要地位。In face of the continuously falling U.S. dollar in recent years, the Chinese foreign exchange reserve has been facing shrinking risks, and the international gold price has repeatedly risen to new records. As a result, to increase gold reserves has been widely called for both at home and abroad. Therefore it is necessary to take a serious look at the relationship between the U.S. dollar exchange rate and the gold prices. Theoretical analysis shows that the U. S. dollar is currently facing dual difficulties, that is , to guarantee the intemational liquidity needs on one hand and to ensure the stable intrinsic value on the other. The empirical research using the monthly data between 1973 and 2010 shows the long-term negative correlation between the U.S. dollar and gold price, and investment in gold remains an effective tool to hedge against the risks related to the U.S. dollar. Therefore, gold still plays an important role in the current international monetary system.

关 键 词：国际黄金价格 美元汇率 国际货币制度 协整关系检验 

分 类 号：F830.94[经济管理—金融学]