略论财政、金融支农对农业发展的影响  

The Research on Effects to the Agricultural Development from Fiscal Supports to Agriculture and Financial Supports to Agriculture

作　　者：杜兴端[1] 徐万刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,成都610064

出　　处：《经济问题》2011年第5期73-75,共3页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目"中国特色农业现代化道路研究"(07&ZD027)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：基于向量自回归模型,通过协整分析、格朗杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析以及方差分解,采用1978~2009年间的时间序列数据,实证检验了财政支农、金融支农与农业发展之间的关系。实证结果表明,财政支农、金融支农与农业发展之间存在协整关系,财政支农是农业发展的格朗杰原因,但反之不成立;金融支农与农业发展之间不存在任何方向上的格朗杰因果关系。财政支农支出的增加对农业发展具有长期的正向支持作用。Based on the vector autoregressive model and the time-series data between year 1978 and 2009,this article has empirically tested the relationship among fiscal supports to agriculture,financial supports to agriculture and the agricultural development through cointegration test,Granger causality test,impulse response test and variance decomposition.The empirical result shows that there is cointegration relationship among fiscal supports to agriculture,financial supports to agriculture and the agricultural development.Fiscal support to agriculture is the cause of agricultural development in Granger causality test,but it＇s not true in converse.Financial supports to agriculture and agricultural development do not have any relationship in Granger causality test in any direction.The increasing expense in financial supports to agriculture has long-term positive effect to agricultural development.

关 键 词：财政支农 金融支农 农业发展 长期关系 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]