国际原油价格波动对中国宏观经济影响的重新考察  

Re-exam the Effects of Crude Oil Price Shocks on Chinese Macroeconomy

作　　者：李卓[1,2] 李林强[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济发展研究中心 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院,430072

出　　处：《经济评论》2011年第3期77-87,共11页Economic Review

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金项目"国际油价波动;石油战略储备与国家能源安全"(编号:07JC790065);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划"国际油价巨幅波动与中国经济可持续发展问题研究"的阶段性研究成果;国家社会科学基金项目"国际石油价格高涨对我国的影响及对策"(编号:08BGJ012)

摘　　要：本文对国际原油价格波动对中国宏观经济的影响进行了重新考察。研究发现:国际原油价格通过影响采购经理人指数进而影响中国主要宏观经济变量,采购经理人指数的引入,完善了国际原油价格波动对中国宏观经济影响的时序传导机制,从而提高了实证结果的显著性。实证结果显示:国际原油价格上涨对中国消费者价格指数有正向影响,但这一结果并不显著;同时国际原油价格上涨并未改变中国经济增长的总体态势。VEC实证模型的估计结果表明:国际原油价格与中国宏观经济变量之间存在显著的协整关系,而且国际原油价格波动对中国宏观经济的影响存在滞后效应。We re-exam the effects of world crude oil price shocks on Chinese macroeconomic variables.It turns out that oil price shocks reveal their effects on Chinese economy through PMI indicator and it is important to include PMI to SVAR analysis in which we obtained higher significant empirical evidence than obtained by similar research so far.To accommodate world crude oil price shocks,there usually exists M2 expansion immediately and money supply will be squeezed out then.So it is not unusual to observe an apparent hike of CPI but its increase is not significant statistically.Economic growth can keep its trend and direction in spite of world oil shocks.The empirical result based on VEC model also reveals that there is discernible lagging effects of oil price shocks on Chinese macroeconomy.

关 键 词：国际原油价格 中国宏观经济 VEC实证模型 采购经理人指数 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F124F224