流动性过剩对物价和产出的动态冲击效应分析  

Analysis of the Dynamic Impulsive Effect of Liquidity Surplus upon Price and Output

作　　者：张龙[1] 徐丽华[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710069 [2]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2011年第3期562-570,共9页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：陕西省科学技术研究发展计划项目的资助(项目编号:2008KR28)

摘　　要：本文运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型方法,研究了我国流动性过剩对物价和产出所产生的动态冲击效应。主要结论是:流动性过剩正冲击对物价仅有短期正效应,即在短期促使物价上涨。流动性过剩正冲击对产出有正效应,而且其效果是中长期有效的,即流动性过剩在中长期促进产出增长。货币供应量M_2对产出的增长的效力相对较大,而货币供应量M_1对物价的影响力相对较大。In this paper the dynamic impulsive effect of liquidity surplus upon price and output in our country is analyzed,based on the structural VAR model.We conclude that liquidity surplus only has a short-term positive effect upon the price level,which means liquidity surplus may raise price level in a short period of time.The positive impact of liquidity surplus has positive effect upon the output,and it is long-run effect,i.e.the liquidity surplus promotes output to increase in a long run.The Money supply M_2 has more significant effect on the increase of output,while the money supply M_1 has more significant effect on the price level.

关 键 词：流动性过剩 物价上涨 经济增长 结构向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F222.3[经济管理—国民经济] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]