2011,埃及的政治继承与民主之变——从宪政改革到政治革命  

An Analysis of the Political Succession and Dynastic Change from the Perspective of Egypt's Constitutional Reform

作　　者：王泰[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古民族大学世界史研究所 [2]南开大学世界近现代史研究中心,兼职研究员028043

出　　处：《国际政治研究》2011年第1期120-136,9,共17页The Journal of International Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"埃及的威权主义与政治民主化进程研究"(编号:08BSS008)最终成果的一部分;教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目"中东政治现代化进程研究"(项目号:2009JJD770023);国家社科基金重大招标项目"北非阿拉伯国家通史研究"(项目号10&ZD115)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：作为在中东、阿拉伯世界和非洲最重要的大国之一,埃及的政治继承及民主化问题备受关注。迫于国内反政府力量的逐渐扩大及美国的民主化压力,穆巴拉克从2005年开始启动以宪政为核心的政治改革。但是由于长期积累的诸多问题未能在短时期得到根本解决,穆巴拉克最终没有在埃及建立起民主化制度,其政权在2011年初被大规模群众性抗议所推翻。在未来的过渡时期,军方能否顺利还政于民,穆斯林兄弟会能否乘势而上,埃及政局的走向充满了不确定性。As a Middle Eastern country, and as one of the great powers in Africa and the Arab world, Egypt's political succession and democratization receives a great amount of attention. Pressured by the growing antigovernment forces and pushed by the U.S. to democratize, Hosni Mubarak was forced to begin political reform, focusing on its constitution. However, due to the fact that problems accumulated over time could not be thoroughly resolved in the short term, Mubarak failed to establish a democratic system. His regime was overthrown in 2011 by mass protests. During the coming transition period, it is unclear whether the military can successfully restore the power to the people,or whether the Society of the Muslim Brothers can take advantage of the situation and come to power.Egypt's political future is unpredictable.

关 键 词：地区与国别政治 埃及 宪政 民主化 政治继承 政治革命 

分 类 号：D741.1[政治法律—政治学]