长江三峡库区人口发展动力学模型探析  

The Exploration on Population Development Dynamic Model of Three Gorges Reservoir-region for Yangtze River

作　　者：查中伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆三峡学院,万州404000

出　　处：《价值工程》2011年第15期302-303,共2页Value Engineering

基　　金：重庆三峡学院重点科技项目(10ZD-13);重庆三峡学院教授科技资助项目(09ZZ-063)

摘　　要：结合中国人口环境,分析了长江三峡库区人口现状与发展趋势。以2004年三峡库区人口总数为初始值求解了揭示三峡库区人口发展的非线性动力学模型,由此预测出长江三峡地区未来人口发展状态。根据我国人口政策,探讨了该地区人口发展模式转变,提出了人口控制的若干建议。We analyzes population capacity and development condition an the Three Gorges Reservoir region based population surroundings of china.Based on the Three Gorges Reservoir region population total in 2004 for the initial value,we have solved nonlinear dynamic model of the Three Gorges Reservoir region population development, which may forecasts the future population development condition in the Three Gorges Reservoir region of the Yangtze River.According to China＇s population policy,we explore the transformed of population development way in the region and put forward many suggestions about the population control.

关 键 词：三峡库区 人口动力模型 人口模式转变 人口控制 

分 类 号：C92-03[社会学—人口学]