基于数量化理论的初始释放瓦斯膨胀能预测模型  

Research on Expansion Energy in Initial Released Gas Prediction Model Based on Quantification Theory

作　　者：石庆礼[1] 杨胜强[1] 蒋承林[1] 何磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学安全工程学院,江苏徐州221008

出　　处：《煤矿安全》2011年第5期1-4,共4页Safety in Coal Mines

基　　金：国际科技合作攻关资助项目(2008DFB70100);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50834005)

摘　　要：研究了数量化理论Ⅰ建模的原理和方法,收集了近3年来100多对矿井的实测初始释放瓦斯膨胀能资料,获得10组可靠数据,选取煤的破坏类型为定性说明变量,瓦斯放散初速度、煤的坚固性系数、瓦斯压力为定量说明变量,建立了基于数量化理论Ⅰ的初始释放瓦斯膨胀能预测模型,通过模型检验和精度分析,得出模型拟合效果好,预测精度能够满足工程精度要求,说明利用数量化理论对初始释放瓦斯膨胀能进行预测是可行的。With the modeling principle and method based on quantification theory I studied,actual data of expansion energy in initial released gas in more than one hundred mines are collected during three years,In this way,the group of ten reliable data of expansion energy in initial released gas are obtained.then,a expansion energy in initial released gas prediction model is established based on quantification theory I with dynamic failure of coal seam as the qualitative explanatory variable and initial speed of methane diffusion,coal rigidity and gas pressure as qualitative explanatory variables.data were well described by verification of the model and accuracy analysis.the accuracy of the model meets the requirements of the engineering needs.It indicates that the prediction for expansion energy in initial released gas is feasible by quantification theory.

关 键 词：数量化理论 初始释放瓦斯膨胀能 单项指标 预测模型 

分 类 号：TD712[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]