三峡库区人口预测与和谐长江三峡构建研究  

The Study on Population Forecast of Three Gorges Reservoir-region and Constructing Harmonious Three Gorges of Yangtze River

作　　者：查中伟[1] 刘学飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆三峡学院,重庆万州404000

出　　处：《西北人口》2011年第3期100-103,共4页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：重庆市教育委员会科技项目(KJ1111XX);重庆三峡学院重点科技项目(10ZD-13)

摘　　要：研究了中国长江三峡库区人口容量现状。结合三峡工程建成后库区实际,利用人口动力学方法建立了三峡地区人口发展预测数学模型,由此可以定量化地预测长江三峡库区未来人口发展状态。根据我国人口政策,提出了人口发展预测和控制,推进人口发展方式转变和管理体制创新是构建和谐三峡之首要任务的建议。We studied present situation of population capacity in the Three Gorges Reservoir-region of the Yangtze River of China.And based on the practical situation of Reservoir-region after the Three-Gorges Project finished,we have established population-development forecast＇s mathematical-model of the Three Gorges area with the population dynamics method,which may quantitatively forecasts the future population-development condition in the Three Gorges Reservoir-region of the Yangtze River.According to the population policy of our country,we also proposed the suggestion that the most important tasks for the constructing harmonious.Three Gorges are to do the population development forecast control,and to make the population development way transformed the administrative system innovated.

关 键 词：人口容量 人口发展预测 数学模型 和谐三峡 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]