中国流动人口与城镇化、工业化发展关系的实证分析  

The Practical Analysis of the Relationship Between the Floating Population,Urbanization and Industrialization in China

作　　者：陈正[1] 汤莉莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安财经学院统计学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《西安财经学院学报》2011年第3期23-27,共5页Journal of Xi’an University of Finance & Economics

摘　　要：伴随着经济的不断发展,我国流动人口数量快速增加,流动人口管理已成为国家关注的热点。进行流动人口与城镇化、工业化发展关系的实证量化分析,对流动人口管理具有积极的意义。对流动人口率、城镇化率和工业化率之间数量变动分析得出,虽然三者表现为正线性相关,但由于他们都为非平稳序列,不宜展开线性关系的进一步的分析;格兰杰因果分析发现,仅存在城镇化率对流动人口的单向影响关系,同时也仅存在流动人口对工业化率的单向影响关系。With the continuous development of economy,the amount of China＇s floating population is increasing rapidly.The management of the floating population has become a national matter.The practical analysis of the relationship between the floating population,urbanization and industrialization have the positive significance to the management.With the analysis of the quantity fluctuation of the floating population rate,the urbanization rate and the industrialization rate,some conclusions have done.Although all three of the rate showed positive linear correlation,but they are all non-stationary series,and should not expand further linear relation analysis to them.Granger causality analysis shows only exist one-way relationship,that is,the urbanization rate is Granger cause to the floating population,the floating population is Granger cause to the industrialization rate.

关 键 词：流动人口 城镇化 工业化 实证分析 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]