太湖蓝藻水华灾害灾情评估方法初探  

Comprehensive evaluation method of cyanobacteria bloom hazard in Lake Taihu

作　　者：刘聚涛[1] 杨永生[1] 高俊峰[2] 姜加虎[2] 

机构地区：[1]江西省水利科学研究院,南昌330029 [2]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京210008

出　　处：《湖泊科学》2011年第3期334-338,共5页Journal of Lake Sciences

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2008CB418106);中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX1-YW-14-6)联合资助

摘　　要：通过对太湖蓝藻水华灾害影响分析,探讨了太湖蓝藻水华灾害灾情评估指标的选取和评价标准的划分,并采用模糊评价模型构建太湖蓝藻水华灾害灾情综合评估方法.评价指标分为影响人口、影响范围、生态环境影响和经济损失四个方面,其中影响人口指标为受灾人口,影响范围指标包括蓝藻水华面积发生百分比和影响时间,生态环境影响指标包括藻细胞浓度、TN浓度和TP浓度,经济损失指标包括直接经济损失和间接经济损失,分别将太湖蓝藻水华灾害分为轻灾、中灾、重灾、极重灾和巨灾五个级别.根据灾害综合评估方法,以2007年5月29日太湖蓝藻水华灾害事件为实例进行评估,该次蓝藻水华灾害为巨灾,与该次事件引起的社会经济影响基本相一致,表明该方法具有一定的科学性和适用性.According to the analysis of the cyanobacteria bloom disaster effect,this paper discussed the evaluation indices and criteria of the hazard,constructed hazard evaluation method applying fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model.In the indicator layer,the affected population was the population affected by the hazard.The affected area included the percentage of the cyanobacteria bloom area and affected days.The eco-environmental indices included cyanobacteria cell concentration,total nitrogen concentration and total phosphorus concentration.The economic losses included direct loss and indirect loss,and it took the drinking water loss and tourism loss as direct losses and the hazard relief loss as indirect loss.Through the analysis of indicator system,according to the experts＇ determination,the cyanobacteria bloom hazard classification in Lake Taihu was divided into five classes which were light damage,mid-damage,heavy damage,heavier damage and catastrophic damage.Based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,this paper evaluated the cyanobacteria bloom hazard events from 2004 to 2008.The results showed that the cyanobacteria bloom hazard event in May 29th,2007 was catastrophic one,which was consistent with the socio-economic effect.The results proved that the evaluation method could be successfully applied in the scientific research and field operation.

关 键 词：蓝藻水华灾害 灾情 评估方法 太湖 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]