南海北部近岸海域风场特征分析与预报研究  

Analysis and forecasting of wind field character on the north of South China Sea borders near-ocean area

作　　者：王蓉[1] 肖瑜璋[2] 俞胜宾[1] 宋萍萍[1] 杨凡[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局南海预报中心,广东省海洋预报台,广东广州510300 [2]国家海洋局南海环境监测中心,广东广州510300 [3]国家海洋局珠海海洋环境监测中心站,广东珠海519015

出　　处：《海洋预报》2011年第2期1-8,共8页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家海洋局南海分局海洋科学技术局长基金重点项目(0879)

摘　　要：南海北部近岸海域北靠东亚大陆,南面广阔的南海海域,地理位置十分独特,具有典型的季风特征。本文对南海北部近岸海域风场与大尺度大气环流特征的相关分析,阐述大气环流异常对南海北部近岸海域风场的影响。研究表明,南海北部近岸海域风场分布具有较强的区域性和季节性;因气候年际变化的强弱,如厄尔尼诺与南方涛动(ENSO)循环、南海暖池面积指数的年际变化,与南海北部近岸海域风场强度也具有相关性。除使用传统的数理统计方法外,前期大气环流的诊断分析、大气外部强迫因子的前期强信号以及数值预报产品等的综合运用、综合诊断分析,是改进、提高中长期天气过程和短期气候预测的有效方法。The north of South China Sea borders on the north of East Asia in the north and faces the wide sea ar-ea（or： maritime space）,which has a special geographic location.It has a typical character of monsoon.This pa-per makes a correlation analysis of near-ocean area＇s wind field and macroscale atmospheric circulation character,presenting an impact of abnormal atmospheric circulation to the wind field of the north South China Sea area.It confirms that the distributing of wind field has a strongly zonal and seasonal character.Because of the change of climate yearly,for example of Elnino and ENSO circulation,South China Sea＇s warm-pool area index change yearly,also have a correlation to the near-ocean area＇s wind field intensity.Except the traditional statistics,the prophase diagnosis analysis,prophase strong signal of atmospheric outer force factor,the compositive using of numerical forecast,and compositive diagnosis analysis and so on,are the effective measures of enhancing and im-proving on the medium-range and short-range forecasting result.

关 键 词：南海北部 近岸海域 风场特征 大气环流异常 

分 类 号：P73[天文地球—海洋科学]