改进的加权C-F模型方法在煤矿安全评估中的应用  

Application of Improved Weighted C-F Model & Method in Coal Mine Safety Assessment

作　　者：李英龙[1,2] 莫尚丰[1,2] 周志强[3] 

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学数学与计算科学学院,湖南湘潭411201 [2]中国人民大学信息学院,北京100872 [3]湖南科技大学管理学院,湖南湘潭411201

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2011年第1期112-117,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：湖南省教育厅资助科研项目(08B027)

摘　　要：为在不确定的条件下准确地评估煤矿生产安全风险,构建煤矿安全评估证据体系(体系分为3级,包括3个一级证据,6个2级证据,22个3级证据),基于该体系和改进的加权C-F模型方法,提出一种新的煤矿安全评估方法。在煤矿安全领域专家给定推理规则强度和证据加权因子等数据下,应用该模型方法对不同类型煤矿进行计算机仿真实验,结果表明该方法在不确定条件下,能智能地评估煤矿企业生产安全风险,为提升煤矿安全生产和科学决策水平提供指导。In order to accurately assess the safety risk of coal mine production under uncertain conditions,an assessment evidence system（including 3 first-grade evidences,6 second-grade evidences and 22 third-grade evidences） is constructed,and safety assessment model and method for the coal mine production management are proposed based on improved weighted C-F model under such assessment evidence system.According to the inference rules＇ values and evidence weights given by coalmine field experts,computer simulation with such model and method of different coal mining enterprises was carried out.The results show that the method can intelligently assess the safety risk of coal mine production under uncertain conditions,and provide guidance for coal mines to improve work safety and scientific decision-making.

关 键 词：煤矿安全 不确定推理 证据 加权因子 可信度因子 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]