基于概率影响图的R&D项目风险传导评估模型  

An Assessment Model for R&D Project Risk Conduction Based on Probability Influence Diagram

作　　者：杨潮兴[1] 张志峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军空军工程大学导弹学院,陕西三原713800

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2011年第1期118-123,共6页China Safety Science Journal

摘　　要：为实现R&D项目风险的有效管理,需要对风险的传导特性进行量化评估。基于传导能量理论,利用概率影响图方法,从拓扑层、函数层和数值层构建了R&D项目风险传导评估模型。分析表明:该模型对项目风险传导量化研究具有较强的适用性;数据采集简便,模型的评估精度取决于信息的完全性;通过应用过程中的模型简化,在一定程度上能够提高模型的实用性。最后考虑项目管理者的决策因素,在评估模型基础上设计了R&D项目风险传导评估框架。For the effective risk management of R＆D project, the risk conduction characteristic needs to be evaluated quantitatively. Based on conductive energy theory, the probability influence diagram method was applied, and the R＆D project risk conduction model was established from topology layer, functional layer and numerical layer. Analysis on the model shows that it is applicable to the quantitative research on project risk conduction; data collection is convenient and the assessment precision depends on the perfecti- bility of information; the model can be simplified in the practical application to improve its applicability. Finally, the assessment frame of R＆D project risk conduction was designed considering risk decision-making factor.

关 键 词：R&D项目 风险传导 概率影响图 评估模型 评估框架 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]