贵州经济周期波动的特征、成因及对策  

Guizhou economy period fluctuation's characteristics,reason and countermeasure

作　　者：龙江[1] 朱增城[2] 

机构地区：[1]贵州大学经济学院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《特区经济》2011年第4期216-218,共3页Special Zone Economy

摘　　要：本文依据经济周期波动的相关理论,运用"阶梯周期法"、"离差分析法",并结合三次产业波动,投资、消费等因素对改革开放以来贵州经济运行的整体特征和成因进行了分析。研究结果表明,改革开放以来贵州经济波动强度降低,正逐渐从短周期向中周期过渡,但与全国相比,经济扩张能力和抗衰退能力相对较弱;三次产业中,第一、二产业对经济波动影响较大,相比全国,第三产业对经济增长的影响程度较低;在投资、消费两因素中,投资增长的波动决定着贵州经济的波动。本文还对以上研究结论给出了解释并提出了相关的政策建议。Base on the theory of the periodic economi cs fluctuation,the paper analyzes the characteristics and causes of the Guizhou＇s economics fluctuation after China＇s reform and open-door policy using the ＂chain analysis＂ and the ＂trend analysis＂,combined with the analysis of the fluctuation of the three Industries,and the effect factors such as the investment,consumption.The results show that the strength of Guizhou＇s economic fluctuation decreased after the China＇s reform and open-door policy,combined with its gradual transition from the short cycle to the intermediate cycle,but compared with the national economics,Guizhou＇s economics has a weaker capacity of expansion and anti-recession;among the three industries,the primary and secondary industries play a more important role in the economics growth,which makes the tertiary industry is less important in economics growth;between the investment and consumption,the former dominates the growth of the Guizhou＇s economics.The detailed explanation about the conclusions talked above and the relevant policy recommendations also are given in the paper.

关 键 词：经济周期 波动特点 影响因素 宏观经济对策 贵州 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]