参保职工年龄结构变动测算模型构建及应用  

Actuarial Models of Age Structure Changes of Workers Participating in Pension Insurance System and Its Application

作　　者：马伟[1,2] 王立剑[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,陕西西安710049 [2]西安交通大学人文社会科学学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2011年第7期150-154,共5页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"中国人口结构变动与社会保障需求研究"(07BRK004)

摘　　要：参保职工年龄结构变动直接影响社会保险基金的收支,文章采取"反馈式"人口年龄结构测算思路,对人口发展方程进行改进,进而构建参保职工年龄结构变动测算模型;以苏州工业园区公积金会员年龄结构变动为例的实证研究表明,公积金会员年龄结构呈跳跃式发展,60岁以上会员占总人数的比例到2050年达到最高值47.3%,抚养比由636∶1下降到2050年的1.13∶1,进而证明了模型的有效性。Age structure changes of workers participating in pension insurance system have a direct influence on the revenue and expenditure of social insurance fund. Adopting a feedback way of measuring population age structure to improve the population growth equation and based on the improved equation, this study builds a measuring model of age structure of workers participating in pension insurance. Then the paper makes an empirical study on the age structure of CPF （ central provident fund） members in Suzhou industrial park. The outcome shows that age structure of CPF members develops leap - forward, the percentage of members over 60 years old will reach its peak to 47. 3% in 2050, and the dependency ratio will decrease from 636：1 to 1. 13：1 in 2050.

关 键 词：参保职工 年龄结构 测算模型 

分 类 号：F840.61[经济管理—保险]