中国旅游市场发展非线性增长效应实证研究  

Empirical Study on Tourism Market Non-linear growth effect in China

作　　者：赵磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学国际工商管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《经济管理》2011年第5期110-122,共13页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目"我国公共景区产权管理及其制度改革研究"(09YJC790090)

摘　　要：本文利用2005～2008年间中国省际地区旅游市场发展的面板数据模型,对中国旅游市场发展的非线性增长效应进行了实证研究。依据四种不同约束条件下的区域样本,得出了在不同约束条件下中国旅游市场发展与经济增长的影响机制之间存在着差异性。总体上来讲,中国旅游市场发展与经济增长的关系存在着不同的U型关系。在不同地区条件下中国旅游市场对经济增长具有显著正向作用,只有入境旅游市场在西部地区对经济增长具有显著负向作用。本文也基本证实了在不同经济发展水平和不同地区条件下,中国旅游市场发展非线性增长效应实证检验结果的稳健性;由于入境旅游市场发展的滞后性,本文验证了旅游发展水平中低地区的入境旅游市场发展对经济增长的显著负向作用存在继续扩大的风险,不同旅游发展潜力下第三产业的发展对中国旅游市场发展的经济效应具有显著正向作用。Using panel data from 2005 -2008 among provinces in China, this paper carries out an empirical study on tourism market non-linear growth effect. According to regional samples with four different constraints, there exits different economic effective mechanisms in tourism market development in China. In a word, the econo- metric results show that there are different U relationships between tourism market development and economic growth. Tourism market development has significant positive effect on economic growth under different regions, but inbound tourism has significant negative effect on economic growth; Under different economic development, this paper confirms the robustness of empirical study on tourism market non-linear growth effect in China; Since the lag of inbound tourism development, this paper verifies that there is a expanding risk. inbound tourism market development has significant negative effect on economic growth shortly in tourism development low level regions. Service industry has significant positive effect on economic growth under tourism development potential.

关 键 词：国内旅游市场 入境旅游市场 整体旅游市场 非线性增长效应 

分 类 号：F590.7[经济管理—旅游管理]