中国房价与租赁价格关系研究  

Empirical study on the relationship between sale price and rent of house in China

作　　者：李勇[1] 邓晶[1] 王有贵[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学管理学院,北京100875

出　　处：《上海理工大学学报》2011年第2期150-154,共5页Journal of University of Shanghai For Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70771012);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2009AB-19)

摘　　要：利用1999～2009年中国房屋销售价格指数和房屋租赁价格指数季度数据,运用季节调整、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验及脉冲响应等方法,对房价与租金的关系进行了实证分析.研究表明,中国房价与租金不存在长期稳定的均衡关系,短期内房价变动不影响租金变动,而租金变动影响房价变动,但影响力有限.从需求面看,房价变动主要由投资和投机需求而非自住需求引起;租金上涨使部分有自住需求的人转向房屋购买,引起房价上涨,但此部分人不是买卖市场的主导者,所以影响力有限.With the quarterly data of housing price indices and rent indices in China from first quarter in 1999 to fourth quarter in 2009,the relationship between housing price and rent was tried to be figured out in Chinese real estate market based on the seanonal adjustment,cointegration test,Granger causality test,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis.The results show that there is no long-term interaction mechanism between housing price and rent;housing price variation does not influence on rent variation,but rent variation has limited effects on housing price variation in short run.It is considered that housing price variation in China is mostly attributed to investment and speculation demand rather than owner-occupied demand,as viewed from the demand side of the housing transaction.Rent rising may lead more people turn to house purchasing and result in housing price rising,but its impact is small since these people are not the leading part in housing trading market.

关 键 词：房价 租金 季节调整 GRANGER因果检验 脉冲响应 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]