气候变化对滦河流域水文循环的影响及模拟  

Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrological Cycle in the Luan River Basin

作　　者：张利平[1] 曾思栋[1] 王任超[1] 夏军[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《资源科学》2011年第5期966-974,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(编号:2010CB428406);国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40730632)

摘　　要：气候变化对我国各地区水资源影响的时空格局变化,尤其是对水资源工程和规划的影响,是气候变化影响评估的重要内容。本文以滦河流域为研究流域,采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法,分析了1957年-2001年的水文气象要素变化特征;基于数字高程模型、土地利用和土壤类型等资料,应用SWAT分布式水文模型模拟滦河流域水文循环过程,由月径流量计算结果,模拟期效率系数达到77.2%,检验期达到83.1%,表明SWAT模型在该流域具有一定适用性;根据IPCC第四次评估报告多模式结果,分析了IPCCSRES-A2、A1B、B1情景下21世纪降水、气温、径流、蒸发的年响应过程,以1961年-1990年作为基准期,结果表明3种情景下从2011年-2099年以上各水文要素都呈增加趋势,且降水、气温、蒸发都较基准期有所增加,而径流量在2020s(2011年-2040年)径流量相对基准期减少,且在A2、B1情景下2050s(2041年-2070年)径流量依旧减少,到2080s(2071年-2099年)3种情景下径流量才增多。该结果将为南水北调中线工程水资源分配的制定提供较为科学的理论依据,对于保证海滦河流域社会经济可持续发展等方面具有重要参考价值。Climate change impacts on temporal and spatial patterns of water resources in China’s various regions,especially on water resources engineering and planning,is of importance to climate change impact assessment in China.Uncertainties in climate models,which are major promising tools for the assessment of climate change impact,could introduce uncertainties to runoff simulation and subsequently hydrological response prediction.Many studies have shown that the average result of multiple climate models seems to be better than that from a single model.Therefore,the average simulations from multiple climate models were applied in this study to the Luanhe River basin.The linear regression and Mann-Kendall non-parametric test methods were used to unravel the change characteristics of hydrological and meteorological variables.Results indicate an increasing trend in precipitation,evaporation,as well as temperature,while the runoff decreased in the past years.A distributed hydrological model,Soil and Water Assessment Tool（SWAT）,was applied by accounting for digital elevation models,land use and soil types,and other data sources specific to the study river basin.Results suggest efficiency coefficients of 77.2% and 83.1% for the calibration period（1961-1990） and validation period（1991-2000）,respectively.This indicates that the SWAT model could be applicable to the Luanhe River basin.Then,meteorological data sets based on IPCC AR4 multi-mode climate models under different green house gases（GHG） emission scenarios（SRES-A2,A1B,and B1） in the 21st century were used to drive the SWAT model to simulate the hydrological processes in the future time periods.Finally,annual response processes of precipitation,temperature,runoff,and evaporation during the period 2011-2099 were analyzed with reference to the period 1961-1990.Results show an increasing trend of all hydrological elements under three scenarios during the period 2011-2099.In particular,the precipitation,temperature,and evaporation would increase compared

关 键 词：滦河流域 气候变化 水文循环 SWAT模型 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]