基于AHP的中原地区耕地预警实证研究——以新郑市为例  

An Empirical Study on Early-warning of Zhongyuan Farmland Based on AHP Method:a Case Study of Xinzheng City

作　　者：孟俊杰[1] 蔡世忠[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究中心,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《河南农业科学》2011年第3期1-5,共5页Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目(2006BAJ05A14)

摘　　要：为及时发现并排除中原农区耕地警情,实现耕地的可持续利用,迫切需要建立一套全面、科学、客观的耕地预警指标体系和预警方法。鉴此,以层次分析法(AHP)为基础确定耕地预警指标体系,主要预警指标有人均耕地面积、耕地面积增长率、灌溉保证率、农业GDP增长率、粮食单产、粮食作物占作物总播种面积比率、农作物总播种面积增长率、城镇化率、非农产业GDP比重、非农建设用地增长率、人口增长率等。利用河南省年度指标数据和系统化方法确定各指标警限,利用曲线趋势外推法和时间序列指数平滑法外推预警年份指标数值,用扩散指数(DI指数)判断总警度,建立一套便于推广、便于横向和纵向相比较的不同区域耕地预警系统,并以河南省新郑市为例进行实证分析。结果表明,新郑市耕地基本处于无警状态,但个别年份存在轻度警情,并提出了实行更为严格的建设用地增量控制、适当控制人口增长率等政策建议。In order to detect and eliminate the warning condition and achieve sustainable use of Zhongyuan farmlands,an early-warning indicator and a comprehensive,scientific and objective method system needs to be constructed.Based on AHP method,this study constructed an early-warning indicator system,and determined the limits of the indicators using systematic method and the indicator data of Henan province.The methods of curve trend extrapolation and time series exponential smoothing extrapolation were used to forecast the indicator values of the future years.The diffusion index was used to determine the total alarming degree.A farmland early-warning system was built to make horizontal and vertical comparison among different regions and units.An empirical case study of Xinzheng city in Henan province showed that Xinzheng＇s farmland still had some risk in a few years,although it was safe in the past years.It was suggested to strictly restrict increase of construction land,and properly control speed of population growth.

关 键 词：耕地预警 层次分析法 中原地区 新郑市 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]