一种新安江模型参数的全局优化方法  

A Global Optimization Method of Xin′anjiang Model Parameter

作　　者：辛朋磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省水文水资源勘测局南通分局,江苏南通226006

出　　处：《南通大学学报（自然科学版）》2011年第1期49-55,共7页Journal of Nantong University(Natural Science Edition)　

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50479017)

摘　　要：将全局优化方法SCE-UA用于新安江模型的参数优化中,以月潭流域1978—1991年共14年的实测降雨、径流资料以及1982—1988年实测洪水资料为例,对新安江模型参数全局优化方法进行研究.研究结果表明,单纯利用SCE-UA方法得到的最优参数组会随着资料长度的变化而变化,体现出了优化结果的不稳定性.进而引入赵人俊的新安江模型参数客观优化理论,将SCE-UA方法与该理论相结合.研究结果表明,该方法可避免因参数之间的相关性导致参数优化结果的不稳定现象,可大大降低模型的不确定性.通过检验,该方案可以较好地用于新安江模型参数优化中.The SCE-UA method has been used for the Xin′anjiang model parameter optimization and the 14 years rainfall-runoff data set of Yuetan watershed has been used in the study.Based on the results of the study,the ＂optimum＂ parameter set changes along with the data set length′s change which means SCE-UA method cannot get the stable parameter set in real condition.Then the parameter objective optimization theory which developed by Zhao Renjun is introduced and combined with the SCE-UA method.The study results reveal that this method may reduce the instability of the parameter optimization results and reduce the uncertainty of the model.At last model verification has been made and the results reveal that this method is also applicable to the Xin′anjiang model parameter optimization.

关 键 词：新安江模型 全局优化方法 参数 客观优化 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]