卫星导风在台风路径预报中的应用进展  

A Summary of the Applications of Cloud Motion Wind Data to Typhoon Track Forecasts

作　　者：詹奕哲[1] 王振会[2] 官莉[1] 张蕾[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2011年第4期386-393,共8页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"台风登陆前后异常变化及机理研究"(编号:2009CB421502);国家自然科学基金项目"傅里叶相位分析技术研究及其在卫星云图导风的应用"(编号:40475018)资助

摘　　要：台风作为全球危害巨大的自然灾害,对其路径预报的准确度尤为重要。在常规观测资料稀少的热带洋面上,卫星云图是监测热带气旋的主要工具,其中卫星导风技术,通过对云及晴空区特征的追踪,反演出的卫星风矢,在一定程度上弥补了海洋上由于风场观测资料稀缺对台风路径研究的限制,显著提高了台风路径预报水平。结合近年来逐步成熟的卫星导风中的云导风技术在台风预报上的应用,总结了国内云导风技术在改善台风路径预报中的贡献,如加密观测资料、台风中心定位、优化数值模式初始场和客观分析场、构造人造台风Bogus模型以及由其揭示的发展和不发展热带气旋的对流层上部环流特征,同时展望了卫星导风技术及其资料在台风预报实际应用中有待进一步研究的内容。Typhoon is a great natural disaster in the world.The accuracy of its path prediction is particularly important.In the conventional data-sparse tropical ocean,satellite images are the main tool to monitor tropical cyclones.Cloud track wind technology which by way of the characteristics of the clouds and clear zone to get the AMVs（atmosphere motion vectors）,to a certain extent,makes up for the restrictions of the study of the ocean typhoon path due to the lack of observation data.This study combines with the gradually mature application of the satellite derived wind to typhoon prediction and also sums up the contributions of the cloud motion wind technology in improving the prediction of the typhoon path,such as the Encryption of observation data,Typhoon Center Orientation,Numerical optimization of an objective analysis of initial and field,typhoon Bogus model of man-made structure and Development and Non-development Tropical Cyclones revealed by high density cloud motion winds.Encryption observation over the sea（especially the upper atmosphere） provides valuable information for studying the dynamic mechanism of tropical cyclones.It also has an important contribution of the typhoon simulation,which has enhanced the analysis level of transition of tropical cyclones and abnormal path,and provided a wealth of wind data for the study of new typhoon track prediction methods,such as Bogus.At the same time,it also prospects a further study in the practical application of this content.

关 键 词：卫星导风 云导风 台风路径预报 

分 类 号：P405[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P444