中国风电产业政策与产业发展——一项基于风电与传统电力替代性的研究  

POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA'S WIND-POWER INDUSTRY——A Study based on Substitution Effect between Traditional Power Electricity and Wind Power Electricity

作　　者：邸元[1] 刘晓鸥[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院,北京100084 [2]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872

出　　处：《经济理论与经济管理》2011年第5期67-74,共8页Economic Theory and Business Management

摘　　要：本文从考察风电与传统能源电力的需求替代弹性入手,通过构建社会对电力需求函数,分析了传统能源电力与风电的需求替代关系。政府若能通过政策手段内化传统电力对社会环境的负外部性,提高传统电力的价格,则社会对风电的需求量将会显著增加。在需求拉动下,风电产业会实现快速的增长。笔者的研究结果表明,以2009年为例,传统电力价格每上涨0.01元,社会对风电的需求将最高增加1.03亿千瓦左右。因此,我国政府在制定一系列风电产业支持政策的同时,可以尝试利用碳税或发放污染配额等政策手段,适当提高传统能源电力价格,拉动社会对风电的需求总量,促进风电产业的发展,实现社会福利的优化。This paper analyzed the demand elasticity of substitution of wind power electricity to traditional power electricity,by constructing the social electricity demand function.To internalize the negative externalities that the traditional power electricity brings to the society,the government could raise the price of traditional electricity through certain policy instruments.The social demand for wind power would therefore significantly increase through the substitution effect.Driven by increasing demand,the wind power industry would achieve rapid growth.Our computation results showed that,taken the year of 2009 as an example,by increased 0.01 yuan in the price of traditional power electricity,the demand of wind power electricity in the whole could be raised by 103 million kilowatts at most.Therefore,the government could try to use policy instruments such as carbon tax or pollution quotas to increase the price of traditional power electricity,increase the society＇s total demand for wind power,promote wind power industrial progress,and optimize the social welfare.

关 键 词：产业政策 风电需求 外部性 能源价格 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济] F224