中国服务贸易的门槛效应实证研究  

The Empirical Study of Threshold Effects about China's Trade in Service

作　　者：朱福林[1] 侯安栋[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院,北京100102

出　　处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第3期21-26,共6页Journal of Harbin University of Commerce:Social Science Edition

摘　　要：服务贸易外溢作用的显现必然会受到以经济结构、人力资本及制度为代表的门槛因素影响。为对门槛效应进行客观分析,分别选取三个变量以代表三个因素,就1990—2008年期间数据进行了实证分析。先是通过计量模型对三大因素的门槛影响进行整体实证分析,由于经济结构及制度因素表现出较大的混乱,因此继续就这两大因素运用VAR及脉冲响应进行了再分析。结果表明,经济结构和制度因素对服务贸易外溢作用的发挥产生了一定的制约影响,而人力资本则是有利影响。最后针对三组实证研究结果,就各个因素分别给出了建议。Spillover effects of trade in services will inevitably be impacted by threshold factors such like economic structure, human capital and insti-tutional as representative. To conduct an objective analysis of threshold effects, three variables were selected to represent the above three factors, we select the data from year of 1990 to 2008. First, we use empirical methods to evaluate different impacts of three factors. As structural and institu-tional factors show great confusion, we move on to use VAR and impulse response empirical ways to further analyze. The ultimate results show that economic structure and institutional factors play a constraining part on spillover effect of trade in services, while human capital has a beneficial effects. Finally, based on these empirical research findings, some solid recommendations were given according to various factors resoectivelv.

关 键 词：服务贸易 门槛效应 VAR 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]