宁波电网运行风险分析及决策支持系统  

Risk analysis and decision-support system of Ningbo power grid

作　　者：张云晓[1] 郑春莹[2] 郭瑞鹏[1] 李丰伟[2] 龚向阳[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江杭州310027 [2]宁波电业局,浙江宁波315041

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2011年第11期90-94,共5页Power System Protection and Control

摘　　要：介绍了宁波电网运行风险分析及决策支持系统的主要功能和特点。引入风险理论,根据历史统计数据创建了元件停运模型,进而计算电网处于某一预想故障状态的概率,结合电网预想故障的后果分析,定量地描述了电网的运行风险情况。在电网运行风险分析时,仿真了备自投及主变过载联切等自动装置的动作逻辑,使分析结果与电网实际情况更加吻合。系统基于EMS实时数据实现了在线电网运行风险评估,结合检修计划实现了离线电网运行风险评估,为电网调度操作及检修计划安排提供决策支持。实际运行经验表明,该系统可以有效地指导宁波电网的运行工作。The main functions and features of Risk-analysis and Decision-support System of Ningbo Power Grid are introduced.The theory of risk is presented.Component outage model is established based on historical statistical data. Thus the probability of grid state in a certain expected-fault is calculated.The operation state of the power grid can be described by quantitative risk index,combined results of expected-fault analysis and state probability.To make the results more consistent with the actual situation of the power grid,action logic of automatic devices,such as bus bar automatic transfer switch and transformer overload shedding device,is simulated in the power grid analysis.The system can assess the risk of grid online operation based on EMS,otherwise, it can calculate the risk of each maintenance plan offline and provide decision-support for dispatching operation and maintenance scheduling.As can be seen from the online operation,the system can guide the work of Ningbo Grid effectively.

关 键 词：电网运行 决策支持系统 风险评估 风险指标 静态安全分析 自动装置 检修计划 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]