外汇储备最优规模的动态决定——基于多层次替代效应的分析框架  

On the Dynamic Determination of Optimal Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserves:Based on an Analytical Framework of Multi-Level Substitution Effects

作　　者：周光友[1] 罗素梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学金融研究院,上海200433 [2]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《金融研究》2011年第5期29-41,共13页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(09AZD019);教育部人文社科基金一般项目(10YJC790405);复旦大学亚洲研究中心项目(201008)的资助

摘　　要：本文将外汇储备划分为不同的需求层次,构建了基于多层次需求和替代效应的外汇储备分析框架,并尝试性地以静态规模和动态规模作为外汇储备适度区间的上限和下限。对模型的计量检验及外汇储备最优规模的模拟结果表明,外汇储备在满足各层次需求时具有漏斗效应,并且各层次需求之间存在着明显的替代效应;外汇储备规模不论是总规模还是各层次的规模都是动态的,因此最优规模并非各层次需求的简单加总;中国目前的外汇储备明显过剩,但政府没有必要对其进行"主动"干预,当务之急是要考虑如何充分发挥外汇储备的特殊作用,并使其保值增值。This paper divides foreign exchange reserves into different demanding levels, builds an analytical framework of foreign exchange reserves based on multi-level demand and substitution effect, and tries to determine the appropriate range interval by static and dynamic scale. The stimulation results show that foreign exchange reserves have a funnel effect to meet multi-level demand, and there is substantial substitution effect between different levels. Both aggregate scale and multi-level scale are dynamic, so the optimal scale is not simple sum of all levels. China＇s current foreign exchange reserves are excessive, but active intervention is not necessary, the top priority is to make full use of foreign exchange reserves, and to maintain and increase its value.

关 键 词：外汇储备 最优规模 替代效应 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]