加密探空资料在华南暴雨数值预报的应用试验  

EXPERIMENTS OF USING DENSE OBSERVATION DATA OF SOUNDING BALLOON IN RAINSTORM FORECAST OVER SOUTH CHINA

作　　者：黄燕燕[1] 万齐林[1] 陈子通[1] 张诚忠[1] 丁伟钰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所,广东广州510080

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2011年第2期179-188,共10页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200706014);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAC02B);973计划项目(2004CB418307);社会公益研究专项(2005DIB3J110)共同资助

摘　　要：应用逐时同化预报系统CHAF进行加密探空资料同化试验,比较了同化加密探空资料与仅同化常规探空资料所得同化分析场和模式预报结果的差异。同化加密探空资料所得分析场水汽的均方根误差减小,水汽条件和大气环流形势与实况更接近。以加密同化探空资料所得分析场为模式初始场进行预报,雨区的分布和降水量级都较控制试验有改善。分析模式预报改善的原因,主要是大气水汽条件与环流模拟的改善以及二者之间很好的配合。Using the system of CHAF（Cycle of Hourly Assimilation and Forecast）,the validity of assimilating extra observation of sounding balloon is tested.The analyzed fields and model forecasts of assimilating dense sounding data and the routine data are compared.Results show less root mean square error（RMSE） of water vapor by utilizing extra sounding data and the circulation and humidity are more accurate,according to the real atmosphere.And the forecast of location and magnitude of rainstorm of sensible experiments（with assimilating extra data） has been improved.It is concluded that the better forecast on humidity condition in atmosphere and circulation and the proper configuration of them are the main reason leading to the improvements.

关 键 词：逐时同化预报系统CHAF 加密探空资料 华南暴雨 数值预报 GRAPES模式 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]