基于能效视角的主导产业选择多参量GERT网络模型  

Multi-parameter GERT network model of leading industry choice based on energy efficiency perspective

作　　者：郭本海[1] 方志耕[1] 俞斌[1] 杨保华[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京210016

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2011年第5期944-953,共10页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家软科学研究项目(2008GXS5D115);国家社会科学基金重点项目(08AJY024)

摘　　要：通过构建以能源传递关系为基础的多参量GERT网络模型,分析能源生产和供应业部门到其他部门的等效价值传递过程及结果,以揭示不同产业部门的能效实现机理.研究结果表明,我国能源生产和供应业到服务业、建筑业的等价转移概率明显高于其他产业,建筑业和服务业对经济发展的推动作用比较明显.因此,我国面向未来的主导产业选择,应在加强农业基础地位的同时,大力发展现代服务业、建筑业等第三产业门类,使服务业、建筑业在发展经济、推进节能减排等方面发挥更加突出的作用.Through constructing multi-parameter GERT network model based on energy transfer rela- tionship, analyzing the transition and result of equivalent value in the production and supply of energy industry departments to other departments, so as to reveal the various sectors of energy efficiency realization mechanism. Results of the research show that the probability that transferred from the production and supply of energy industry departments to construction and service industry, is significantly higher than other industries, and the impetus construction and service industry make on the economic development is also obvious. Therefore, the choice of leading industry of our country, faced with the future, should strengthen the position of agriculture as the foundation, meanwhile, energetically develop modern service industry, construction industry and other tertiary industry, so as to make industries of construction and service play a more prominent role in economic development, the promotion of energy conservation and emission reduction.

关 键 词：能效 e—GERT网络 主导产业选择 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]