非常规突发事件的性质和特征探析  

Analysis on the Property and Characteristics of Non-Conventional Emergency Events

作　　者：刘霞[1] 严晓[1] 刘世宏[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院,上海200030

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第3期13-17,共5页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics：Social Sciences edition Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委重大研究计划之培育项目(90924004);国家自然科学基金资助项目(70473050)

摘　　要：由于人类的有限理性、环境的动荡性以及科学技术的迅猛发展所注入的更多不确定性因素,现代动荡的社会环境中所爆发的各种突发公共事件远远超出了人类的预见能力和应对能力,笔者研究和分析了这类非常规突发事件的概念及其在时间、信息、状态、方案、程序和后果方面所具有的本真特征和由于环境多变性、过程复杂性、资源稀缺性、组织刚性、决策步骤非程序化、事件的紧迫性、对策方案生成条件所产生的一系列约束特征,指出惟有根据具体的危机情景,以变应变,临机应景地生成恰当的权变策略方为有效。Due to man＇s bounded rationality,the increasing uncertainties from the volatility of the environment and the rapid development of science and technology,various emergencies that break out in this turbulent world are beyond human ability to foresee and handle.The article presents the concept of Non-Conventional Emergency Events,and gives a deeper analysis of the true features and the constraint characteristics of Non-Conventional Emergency Events which are originally characterized with uncertainties in time,information,status,programs,procedures and consequences.When non-conventional emergencies break out,with the variability of the environment,complexity of the process,scarcity of resources and organizational rigidity,along with other problems such as decision-making in urgent conditions and non-procedural solution making,the only way to respond effectively is to come up with contingency strategies in special situations rapidly and react simultaneously and appropriately.

关 键 词：非常规突发事件 本真特征 约束特征 情景-权变 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]