基于CI指数的江苏省近50年干旱的时空分布规律  

Temporal and Spatial Patterns of Droughts for Recent 50 Years in Jiangsu Based on Meteorological Drought Composite Index

作　　者：包云轩[1,2] 孟翠丽[1,2] 申双和[1,2] 邱新法[1] 高苹[3] 刘聪[3] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省农业气象重点实验室,南京信息工程大学,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,南京210044 [3]江苏省气象局,南京210008

出　　处：《地理学报》2011年第5期599-608,共10页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：江苏省科技支撑计划(BE2009680);江苏高校优势学科建设工程~~

摘　　要：根据江苏省54个气象台站1960-2009年实测气象资料,利用气象干旱复合指数(composite index,CI)对江苏省近50年的干旱特征进行了时空分析。通过计算各站历年逐日的CI指数值,统计近50年各站点出现的干旱过程,分析江苏省各地区干旱发生的频率、范围和强度,揭示了江苏省干旱发生的时空分布规律。研究结果表明:(1)江苏省全年和各季干旱发生频率都是北高南低,四季中,冬旱发生频率最高,夏旱发生频率最低,秋旱南北差异不显著。(2)冬季江苏省干旱大范围发生的年份最多,夏季最少;近50年来,全年和四季干旱覆盖范围的线性变化趋势不明显。(3)这50年中,江苏省逐年干旱持续日数和干旱强度虽然存在着明显的年际波动,但线性变化趋势不明显。(4)江苏省各等级干旱日数总体上呈现冬季多夏季少、北部多南部少的规律。In this paper, the observed meteorological data of 54 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2009 in Jiangsu Province of China were collected and a composite index （CI） of meteorological drought was used to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts in the province. Based on the daily CI values of each station in the 50 years, the drought processes of each station were confirmed one by one and the occurrence frequencies, scopes and severities of the meteorological droughts were computed and analyzed to reveal the temporal and spatial occurrence pattern of the meteorological droughts in different parts of Jiangsu Province. The results were showed as follows. （1） The annual and seasonal occurrence frequencies of the meteorological drought in the province decreased from north to south. In all the seasons, the occurrence frequency of the winter droughts was the highest. （2） The years of drought occurrence in a large scope （more than 90% of the total area of the province） were most in winter and least in summer. （3） In the 50 years, there was a notable inter-annual wave of the annual average lasting days and the annual average occurrence severities of meteorological droughts in the whole province but their linear changing tendencies were not obvious. （4） The drought lasting days of different grades in Jiangsu reduced from north to south in general. The drought lasting days of different grades were most in winter and least in summer.

关 键 词：江苏省 气象干旱 复合指数(CI) GIS 时空变化规律 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]