农村“超生”现象与计划生育国策的博弈——基于豫西南地区农村人口可持续发展的思考  

The Game Between Rural "Unplanned Birth" and the Family Planning Policy: Based on Sustainable Development of Rural Population Southwest Henan

作　　者：李笼彦[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西师范学院经济管理学院,广西南宁530001

出　　处：《山西农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2011年第3期244-250,260,共8页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural University:Social Science Edition

摘　　要：人口发展是落实科学发展观、确保人口安全乃至国家安全的战略基础。农村计划生育工作的成效是我国人口可持续发展的关键。由于农村男孩偏爱等多种因素影响,农村的计划生育国策正面临着多方面的挑战。新时期,从博弈论的视角,分析各参与主体的博弈动机和博弈行为。指出各参与主体的利己行为在宏观上阻滞了计划生育国策的推行,进而提出加强制度监督、进行制度创新,关爱女孩教育,完善农村社会保障,加速城镇化进程等路径选择,以期对我国人口可持续发展有所裨益。Population development is the concept of scientific development, to ensure population security and even national security strategy based on. The effectiveness of family planning in rural areas is key to sustainable development. As the preference for boys and other factors, overall national policies of family planning in rural areas face many challenges. In the new era, we analyze their game motivation and behavior. We can find that the subject of self-serving behavior block the implementation of family planning policy in the macro, and put forward the following paths： strengthening the supervision system, carrying out institutional innovation, caring for girls education, improving the rural social security, accelerating the process of urbanization and so on. We hope that this will benefit the sustainable development of China＇s population.

关 键 词：农村“政策外生育” 计划生育国策 博弈 人口可持续发展 豫西南地区 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学]